Is quantum computing truly just five years away from real-world applications or will we be waiting around for decades before it becomes useful? Or will Artificial Intelligence (AI) take quantum computing’s job too?
Recent breakthroughs in quantum computing chips from the likes of Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and China have brought the spotlight back on quantum computing.
When the wizards of technology start creating a hype, it usually catches on and succeeds. There is always the hybrid way. But then, aren’t we still waiting for flying cars?
In February, Amazon came out with its new quantum computing chip, Ocelot, which claims to use scalable architecture for reducing error correction by up to 90% and accelerating the development of real-world quantum computing applications.
Microsoft has also entered the quantum race with Majorana 1, which it claims is the world’s first quantum chip utilising topological qubits, designed to solve industrial-scale problems in years, not decades.
Meanwhile, China is moves ahead in this regard. Researchers from the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) introduced the Zuchongzhi 3.0, a superconducting quantum processor with 105 qubits, which operates one million times faster than Google’s latest Willow quantum chip.
In a benchmark test, Zuchongzhi 3.0 took only seconds to complete what that would take classical supercomputers more than 6.4 billion years.
In December 2024, China also unveiled Tianyan-504, a superconducting quantum computer equipped with a 504-qubit Xiaohong chip, surpassing the 500-qubit mark.
One could say that the Chinese are winning the quantum race.
Does this mean we have moved closer to bringing quantum computing closer to the lay person?
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy is optimistic. “I’m hopeful that it’s more in the five-year range than in the 20-year range,” he said, drawing parallels to generative AI, which took decades of foundational research before reaching mainstream adoption.
“I’m hopeful that it’s more in the five-year range than in the 20-year range,” — Amazon CEO Andy Jassy
Bill Gates also suggested that quantum computing could become useful within three to five years, while Google Quantum AI founder Hartmut Neven said something to the same effect.
However, not everyone is convinced. At the 2025 Consumer Electronics Show (CES), Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated that “very useful quantum computers” are still 15 to 30 years away.
“If you kind of said 15 years for very useful quantum computers, that would probably be on the early side. If you said 30, it’s probably on the late side.” — Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang
“If you kind of said 15 years for very useful quantum computers, that would probably be on the early side. If you said 30, it’s probably on the late side,” Huang told the analysts, Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) reported. “If you picked 20, I think a whole bunch of us would believe it.”
His statement was followed by a drop in quantum computing stocks and hence not received well.
What’s the quantum stand?
So then where are we when it comes to commercial quantum computing, and how do we get there?
When Microsoft came out with its Majorana 1 chip, the tech giant announced that it has made noteworthy strides in its 20-year quest to make topological quantum bits, or qubits. These qubits are supposed to build quantum computers more stable and easier to scale up.
According to The MIT Tech Review, while quantum computers can bring about faster drug discovery and scientific breakthroughs, there is a problem with qubits, the unit of information in quantum computing. James O’Donnel, the Editor of The Algorithm, calls them, “very, very finicky”.
Another argument is that rapid advances in applying AI to scientific problems might render quantum computers needless. So, AI might be taking away quantum computing’s job too!
Where is the money flowing?
The desirability of quantum computing springs from the fact that quantum computing makes use of the principles of quantum mechanics to process information faster than classical computers.
As per a study from Juniper Research, quantum technology commercial revenue will rise from $2.7 billion in 2024 to $9.4 billion in 2030.
However, the study also says that the market is at a very early stage, predicting that the number of quantum computers deployed by 2030 will only reach around 300, as the RoI in quantum technology is likely to reach only 6% by then, with total investment surpassing $29 billion in 2030 alone.
Quantum cloud solutions can be the strongest immediate revenue opportunity. Specifically, quantum encryption technologies, including quantum key distribution, can provide the fastest return on investment for enterprises. The reason, the development of quantum computing requires stricter security requirements, especially in industries like banking and finance. And if rapid RoI is the desire, offering quantum-secure data encryption will be essential to capitalizing on market growth.
The study says since the number of quantum computers deployed will be low, remote connectivity will be crucial for enterprise users who want to access quantum computers.
Harnessing quantum-hybrid computing solutions can work, which harness the power of both quantum and classical computers, resulting in less environmental noise and cost compared to pure quantum computers. As a result, these computers will provide an immediate commercial quantum solution to enterprises at a lower cost, before pure quantum computers become commercialized.
NVIDIA’s quantum strategy is already built around a “hybrid quantum” era. At GTC 2024, last year, Huang drew the case for NVIDIA’s role in this hybrid quantum relationship at GTC 2024, according to Motley Fool.
All in all, we have to wait some more time before we lay our hands on superfast computing. But when the wizards of technology start creating a hype, it usually catches on and succeeds. There is always the hybrid way. But then, aren’t we still waiting for flying cars?
